Although the month of September is going to start with lower than normal temperatures, it is generally expected that there will be more positive than negative anomalies.

Mallorca's beaches are becoming empty

We are at the gates of the beginning of September, which also coincides with the start of the climatological autumn in our area. Is about a month of transition and it is tremendously irregular, and in some years it appears as an extension of summer, while on other occasions (as in 2019, without going any further) torrential rains with catastrophic consequences are triggered on the Mediterranean slope. Hence the well-known saying that states that “September either dries up the fountains or takes away the bridges.”

In addition, on this occasion many people are watching the sky for the beginning of classes and the return to work in a current context very complicated by the situation caused by the new coronavirus. Do youWe will have more shocks in this 2020? Let’s see what the long-term forecasts show.

In accordance with the forecasts of the reference body in Europe, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), in the first days of the month the temperatures can stay slightly below the usual values for the time on the Mediterranean coast and in the extreme north, due to the possible presence of some cold air drop over western Europe and the north or northeast wind.

Two halves

On the other hand, if the forecasts of said body are met, in the first half of the month it will be hotter than it would be for dates in the south and west of the peninsula, continuing the trend of the climatological summer. In the Mediterranean they would tend to rise with the passing of days, while on the Cantabrian coast they would be around normal values. In the final stretch of the month, positive anomalies would predominate in almost the entire country, Except in Canary Islands.

Regarding rainfall, September is undoubtedly one of the most complicated in order to make a forecast. In this month very local floods are common on the Mediterranean side, which in a few hours can change the balance of the month in very specific sectors. Also the storms in the interior usually make an appearance.

For now, ECMWF maps show that after next weekend’s bout of instability, lhe precipitations would be scarce in the whole country, except in the extreme north. Yes in the final stretch of the month it would rain more than normal on the Cantabrian coast and in some areas of the Mediterranean coast, while it would hardly do so in the southwest of the peninsula.

Torrential rains?

It should be emphasized that eThis type of long-term forecast are in the experimental phase and that at this time of year they are not usually very reliable in our area, and especially on the Mediterranean coast. With a slight instability, showers and storms can grow with energy and cause some problems, since both the land surface and the sea are warm after the summer.

Will we have torrential rains? As mentioned, it is a month of transition, and various situations (cold drops-DANAs, troughs or warm rain events) may favor the genesis of high hourly intensity rainfall, which depending on the configuration can be very local or be more general. In any case, you have to be attentive to the weather forecasts.