The first forecasts for the weather in 2022 predict a warmer than normal January, but with the entry of an arctic air mass.

A person advances with skis next to the Cibeles fountain, covered in snow by the storm Filomena, in Madrid (Spain) on January 9, 2021.

January 2022 will start with remarkably higher than normal temperatures in most parts of the country And, in the whole of thirty this first month of 2022 could be slightly warmer than usual in the western half of the peninsula and with less rainfall below the average, according to the prediction of the meteorological portals eltiempo.es and Meteored .

Thus, eltiempo.es remembers that the usual in January in Spain are average temperatures of 7.2ºC, and the coldest are recorded in the interior of the peninsula and in mountain areas, while with respect to rainfall, it indicates that where it usually rains is in the north and in the northwest of the peninsula, in addition to foggy days, some snowfalls and frequent frosts.

However, January 2022 will start with a warmer environment than normal in much of the country, with the exception of the archipelagos and the eastern peninsula, as well as the easternmost Cantabrian Sea, which expects temperatures slightly above average. Likewise, in the second fortnight these temperatures will remain in the south and southwest of the peninsula.

Regarding rainfall, he has predicted that January will start with below normal rains throughout the western half of the peninsula and areas of the center and south. In turn, in the second fortnight the rainfall would remain within normal limits at this time of year.

The polar trough

On the other hand, the Meteored (tiempo.com) expert, Samuel Biener, has offered the first forecasts for January. In this way, ensured that a polar or arctic air mass is sighted linked to a trough from day 4, assuming a drop in temperatures, with values ​​that will be around the average or will be below, especially in the eastern peninsula, the Cantabrian slope and the Balearic archipelago.

According to the evolution of the trough, there could be several situations with respect to rainfall. Currently, a rather dry scenario is forecast for the middle of the first week of January, with only weak rains in the north of the peninsula.

The first half of the month the weather will be influenced by the Azores anticyclone, with a predominance of the north wind in points of the Cantabrian coast and the northeast in the Mediterranean coast, and may produce rainfall in these regions.

In turn, he affirms that there will not be an intense zonal circulation and the polar jet will show certain undulations, so the anticyclone could move to more northern latitudes facilitating the arrival of cold air masses to the peninsula and the Balearic Islands. According to forecasts, this situation will not bring notable episodes of rain.

For its part, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) does not expect a certain atmospheric circulation for now. With what the maps currently suggest, in the second fortnight the thermometers will be slightly higher than usual in Andalusia, Community of Madrid, Castilla-La Mancha, southern Castilla y León, western Galicia, Extremadura, on the east coast and in the Ebro valley.

Finally, Biener adds that there could be more precipitation than normal in the eastern islands of the Canary Islands, the Gulf of Valencia and the Region of Murcia, while the rest of the country continues with a dry environment.