The autumn that begins next Tuesday, September 22, will be drier and warmer than normal, interrupted by ‘cold drops’ like the current one.

Forecast of temperature anomalies for autumn according to

During the week of September 21-27, with the arrival of autumn on Tuesday 22, to be continue the influence of Atlantic fronts as reported by Meteorology Statal Agency (AEMET), with widespread and abundant rainfall in large areas, especially in the northern half of the peninsula.

Monday and Tuesday can be given in the Peninsula in general, even if more intense in its northern half, and the Tuesday also in the Balearic Islands; Wednesday are likely in the northern third of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, being able to be locally strong in Rías Baixas and the Cantabrian Sea, although rainfall is not ruled out in other areas, including the Northern Canary Islands.

As of Thursday, uncertainty increases notably, already high in previous days, although a trend is expected for the instability is maintained in the north of the peninsula. Thus, rainfall is expected to affect the northern third of the peninsula and the north of the Balearic Islands, although, with less probability, it could also occur in other areas of the Peninsula, except for the extreme southeast and even a large part of the southeast half at the end of the week .

No one is ruled out weak snowfall in far north mountains at the end of the week. In Canary Islands there is a possibility of rainfall in the north of the islands. No major changes in temperatures are expected, although declines will predominate and frosts in the mountains of the northern third are likely as of Friday. Starting on Thursday, strong winds from the west can occur in Galicia, Cantabrian, Alboran and the Balearic Islands.

During the AEMET seasonal press conference, the spokesperson Beatriz Hervella has predicted that the forecast signal for the months of October to December indicates that there is “A higher probability” that temperatures are in the warm tertile with respect to the 1981-2010 reference period and rainfall in the lower tertile throughout Spain, which means that it will be drier and warmer than normal values ​​indicate.

Specifically, he has said that, at least it will be an average of 0.6ºC warmer but that this anomaly could reach 1ºC in the Iberian and Central systems, the mountainous systems of the northwest and in the Sierra de Cazorla.

A more “veroño” autumn

The meteorological autumn has started on September 1, Meanwhile he astronomical will do it on September 22 at 15 hours and 31 minutes peninsular official time. This station It will last 89 days and 20 hours and will end on December 21.

In the newly launched station, it is anticipated that temperatures can be located above the fall average in most of the country (taking 1981-2010 as the reference period). The highest probability of this happening is in the Balearic archipelago and the Mediterranean coast.

At rest of the territory, temperatures could be above or slightly above than normal. In Canarias values ​​are expected within their own in the autumn months.

Regarding rainfall, the pattern is not entirely clear, but it is most likely that it is recorded slightly less rain than normal in the southern and interior half of the peninsula and the Canary Islands. In the rest of the country, autumn could be normal in terms of rainfall.

“Cold drops are not ruled out, since if there is a cold air isolation at altitude with a warmer Mediterranean, rains could become important in a specific way in this region ”, has detailed Mar Gómez, head of the meteorology area of ​​ and doctor in Physics.

The most dominant pressure pattern during the fall months would tend to be that of a reinforced anticyclone in the Azores islands, exercising its influence towards our country, and low pressure on northern Scandinavia.

This would create a “corridor” through which storms would enter the United Kingdom and the Scandinavian countries, where rainfall in autumn could be above normal in some regions. However, in southwestern Europe, rains could be scarcer, due to the blocking effect of high pressures.

This does not mean that there are no periods of rainfall. In fact, the forecast in the northern half of Spain is to have normal rains, but if it implies that the dominant pattern will be that of high pressures on average in the three autumn months.

The warmest fall on record in 2014, with an average temperature of 17.7ºC while the coldest, in 1976. The driest occurred in 1978 and, on the contrary, the wettest took place in 2003. While in the last 10 years every fall has been warm or very warm.