The next week will be marked by an Isolated Depression at High Levels (DANA) Atlantic and not Mediterranean like the current one.

DANA position and temperature anomalies for September 16.  Severe-weather.eu

A Isolated Depression at High Levels located on Southwest of the Peninsula tends to approach next Sunday, reports the Meteorology Statal Agency (Aemet). It is expected that affect the western third with rainfall and, with less probability, to the rest of the western half of the peninsula. The Balearic Islands and the extreme northeast will remain with slightly cloudy skies, while in the rest of the Peninsula there will be abundant medium and high cloud cover. Temperatures tend to rise in the northern third and the Balearic Islands and to decrease in the rest of the Peninsula. The wind tends to turn to the south component in the Peninsula. In the Canary Islands there will be variable light winds and slightly cloudy skies or with cloudy intervals, with the possibility of a shower.

Monday, 14 the depression at high levels of the day before will be integrated into an Atlantic trough whose eastern branch clearly penetrates the Peninsula, leaving generalized rainfall except in its eastern third and the eastern half of the Cantabrian Sea, where they are less likely. Rainfall could be accompanied by storm and be locally intense, especially on the southern slopes of the main mountain systems. No precipitation is expected in the Balearic Islands. The temperatures drop in the Peninsula and they go up a bit in the Balearic Islands.

There is considerable uncertainty for the rest of the week, although most of the scenarios suggest that an isolated low at high levels, rest of the trough, is located on the Atlantic near the northwest of the peninsula, with a tendency to penetrate the Peninsula at the end of the period. They wait rainfall in the northern half of the peninsula, but cannot be ruled out in the rest of the Peninsula or in the Balearic Islands. There is a probability that in many areas, still undefined, they will reach a certain intensity. In the Canary Islands, the usual regime of trade winds tends to be reestablished, with cloudy intervals in the north of the islands and the possibility of some light rain in those of greater relief.

A wet year

After a very wet spring preceded by the storm “Gloria”, which left heavy rainfall in January, the hydrological year -only three weeks to close on September 30- has so far left accumulated rains in Spain that exceed by 14 percent mean values.Since the beginning of the hydrological year, last October 1, and until today they have accumulated 686 liters per square meter, compared to a normal value of 604 liters, has explained to Efe Ruben del Campo, spokesperson for Aemet, to specify without any doubt that this cycle will end “more humid than normal“.The spokesperson has detailed, as determining factors to reach this value, the past spring rains that accumulated up to 37 percent more than normal, and the storm “Gloria”, a extraordinary episode with “very intense and persistent” rainfall that left up to 400 liters per square meter in various areas of the Mediterranean arc.This hydrological surplus translates into a “very beneficial” situation, that has partially reversed the meteorological drought that last year suffered multiple areas of the country, although Areas of the southwest of the peninsula still persist, highly affected by the situation of low rainfall, Del Campo stressed.Since the hydrological year of 2012-2013, which ended with an extra rainfall of close to 23 percent (799 liters per square meter), the following years have ended with less accumulated precipitation than the current one.By areas, a “certain regional inequality” is observed in Spain, has specified Rubén Del Campo, who explains that areas with above normal rainfall are located in almost the entire northern half, the eastern half and the Balearic Islands, and above all, in points of Aragon and the Valencian Community with accumulations that in some areas register up to 150 percent above normal.Conversely, The area with the most water stress extends through the southwest of the peninsula, all of the west of Castilla-La Mancha, areas of Andalusia, part of Extremadura, and, specifically, the south of the province of Badajoz and Huelva and in points of the Seville province, where rainfall is below 75 percent of its value.The spokesperson also wanted to highlight the situation of the Canary archipelago where in recent months it has rained “very little”, to such an extent that in good part from the south of the western islands, the province of Tenerife, the south of Gran Canaria and the whole of Fuerteventura and Lanzarote, have barely accumulated rainfall.For Del Campo, the current situation of surplus “will hardly undergo modifications”, among other issues due to the recent rains in the Balearic Islands and in Catalonia and because, even with some uncertainty, the formation of an Atlantic storm in the northwest of the peninsula it is included another DANA in the Gulf of Cádiz that brings more rain.“What is clear is that although not one more drop of water falls, this hydrological year will end up rainier than the annual average of 642 liters per square meter,” said the expert.At this point, Del Campo has observed that so far this calendar year – January 1 to September 1 – it has also rained a greater amount, specifically 7 percent more, and with a distribution very similar to that of the hydrological year, with more precipitation in the Mediterranean area.